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The Eritrean – Eritrean Dialogue Challenges and Perspectives
Workshop
Paper:
The Eritrean – Eritrean Dialogue
Challenges and Perspectives
By:Abdulrazig Karar
Preface:
The term dialogue is an inclusive term that m eans among other meanings:
argument and discussion; dialogue is m eant to exchange talks and discourse
between two sides, but no t necessarily to have so mething that indicates
dispute between those sides.
The Eritrean – Eritrean Dialogue du ring the Political and Military
Struggle
The term dialogue had been circulatin g in the Eritrean arena throughout the
various phases of the political struggle as well as the war of liberation. Some
worth mentioning dialogue models durin g the early phases of the Eritrean
struggle were the attempts of the Isla mic League and the Unionist Party on
coming up with an alternative platfo rm for the national independence,
اﻹﻋﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺎت اﻹرﺗﺮي اﻟﻤﺮآﺰ اﻹﻓﺮیﻘﻲ اﻟﻘﺮن دراﺳﺎت ﻣﺮآﺰ واﻟﺒﺤﻮث ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺎت اﻷﺣﻤﺮ اﻟﺒﺤﺮ ﻣﺮآﺰ PDF page 2
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which was adopted by the Islamic Leag ue and the Federal Unification with
Ethiopia, which was adopted by the Unioni st Party. The alternative platform
was to put Eritrea under British trust eeship; however, the two parties did not
agree on this idea.
Moreover, some discussions took place among the Eritrean Liberation Front,
Popular Liberation Forces and the Erit rean Popular Liberation Front during
the 1970s after waging vicious civil war among themselves in which each
side tried to impose control on the gr ound following the exclusion of the
others.
It is known that the bilateral dialogue s between the two main factions of the
time (the Eritrean Liberation Front and the Eritrea Popular Liberation Front)
were based on the concept of the unity of progressive forces; an indication to
the fact that both fronts were adopting Marxism under the leadership of the
Eritrean Labor Party (ELF) and the Peop le's Party (EPLF). These dialogues
did not bear any positive outcome, de spite attempts by the regime of
Nimayri to sponsor and encourage them, because they were a sort of tactics
that lacked credibility of the interlocutors.
The Eritrean arena witnessed afterwards dialogues, which were sponsored
by the Arab League, such as the dialogues among the Eritrean Liberation
Front; the Eritrean Popular Liberation Front, Eritrean Liberation Front-
Revolutionary Committee and the Er itrean Liberation Front – Popular
Liberation Forces. These dialogues br ought about an agreement known as
Tunisia Accord; however this accord did not see the light especially as it
coincided with fierce battles that were going on between the ELF and EPLF.
These battles ended with military def eat of ELF which was divided into
several factions that were named ELF.
Following the failure of the Tunisi a Accord; the ELF factions under the
leadership of Abdullah Idris, ELF the Revolutionary Committee under the
leadership of Abdulgadir Jailani an d ELF the Popular Liberation Forces
under the leadership of Osman Saleh Sabe engaged in dialogues under the
sponsorship of Saudi Arabia and Su dan. These dialogues led to the
emergence of what was known as the Er itrean Liberation Front - the United
Organization. However, that experience relapsed because of differences led
to its split into two parties under the Er itrean Liberation Front - the National
Council under the leadership of Abdull ah Idris and the Eritrean Liberation
Front - the United Organization under th e leadership of Osman Saleh Sabe. PDF page 3
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And then the Eritrean Liberation Front of Abdullah Idris divided into two
parts; the one under the leadership of Abdullah Idris and the other under the
leadership of Abdulgadir Jailani, wh ile the United Organization remained
united under the leadership of Osman Saleh Sabe.
Post Independence Dialogue:
After the departure of the Ethiopian oc cupation forces in 1991 from Eritrea;
and based on the belief that liber ation has been achieved through the
contributions of all national forces dur ing the years of armed struggle; four
Eritrean opposition organizations: the ELF, ELF the National Council , ELF
the United Organization, the Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement issued a
memorandum of political declarati on. The memorandum called on the
EPLF to overcome differences that existed during the period of armed
struggle among the Eritrean factions and to head towards comprehensive
national reconciliation that would br ing about formation of an interim
government of national unity pendin g appropriate conditions for the
establishment of constitutional governme nt that emerge from a democratic
practice and that would re flect the will of the Eritr ean people. (It is worth
noting that the ELF- the Revolutionary Council boycotted the meetings of
the four organizations that had issued the memo opposing the participation
of the Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement in the meeting). However, the EPLF
did not respond to the call and announ ced that it did not recognize the
existence of other political organizatio ns in the Eritrean arena. On the
martyrs’ day, on June 20, 1992; the Eritrean Presid ent announced his refusal
to recognize others and asked the leader ship of the organizations to enter
individually to the country. Based on this principle; the ruling EPLF went on
the road to devote its totalitarian regime that shackled all forms of
fundamental freedoms.
Dialogue at the Opposition Level:
In the context of strength ening the efforts of the Er itrean opposition factions
to resist the dictatorship regime; th e Eritrean opposition arena has witnessed
a series of dialogues that resulted in the establishment of the following
combinations at different stages: -
1. The Eritrean Alliance in 1996; and it was an alliance in the form of
the United National Front since its constituent organizations PDF page 4
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maintained their autonomy. It had brought together ELF the National
Council, the ELF and the Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement.
2. The assembly of the Eritrean nati onal forces in 1999, and it brought
together the three organizations that formed the above mentioned
Eritrean Alliance, in addition to other organizations and a national
figure who is Mr. Mohammad Saeed Brahtu. In 2002 the assembly
developed and was named the Er itrean National Alliance. The
Democratic Organization of Red Sea Afar and the Eritrean
Cooperation Parties joined the Alliance.
3. In 2004 the organizatio ns of ELF the Revolu tionary Council, the
Eritrean Democratic Party, the Er itrean Popular Movement joined the
Alliance and again the name was changed to the Eritrean Democratic
Alliance. In February 2007 the Alliance split into two blocks; but each
bloc holding the same name.
Unification Experiences:
The Eritrean opposition aren a has witnessed two expe riences of unification
which based on similarity of progr ams and political premises. These
experiences represented in the integration betw een ELF and the ELF the
National Council in 2000 and the unifica tion that has merg ed the National
Congress, the Eritrean Popular Moveme nt and the Eritrean Revolutionary
Democratic Front under the name of the National Salvation Front.
Dialogue between the Government and the Opposition:
There has been no dialogue between the opposition and the government as a
result of the government’s attitude of refusing to recognize the existence of
Eritrean opposition. The Eritrean State c onfronted efforts of Eritrea’s friends
with categorical rejection for any attempt to persuade it by the importance of
dialogue with its opponent s, while opposition fact ions affirmed firm
positions to enter into serious dial ogue with the government under the
sponsorship of mediators acceptable to both sides in order to find a peaceful
settlement to the political crisis in Eritrea.
Despite the slogan of dialogue among the political forces has been there for
more than half a century; however, the issue of national unity in Eritrea is
still facing major challenges, especially after the experience of a dictatorial
regime which has deepened the crisis of trust between the components of the
Eritrean people. The political forces should engage in a political dialogue PDF page 5
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that addresses critical issues such as religion, identity, democratic
transformation and mechanisms of governance which would ensure peaceful
coexistence among the components of the Eritrean people.
The Eritrean – Eritrean dialogue, Multiple Molds and Poor Results
Despite multiplicity of templates of national dialogu e which are known
through historical experiences of hum anity, it is difficult to define the
appropriate mold that fit the Eritrean case at this time. The difficulty to
figure out a suitable mold is driven by some significant observations, which
we will try to mention some of them:-
• The expected parties of the dialo gue at this stage in its most
formations – organizational or political – are an extension of an earlier
stage which is the stage of the re volution, whereby the EPLF as a
school and as an organization repres ents key party in the expected
dialogue, as well as the ELF thro ugh its historical experience and
political school represents another political party, noting some new
directions here and there without undermining the basic hypothesis.
• There were dialogues among thes e components as factions and
political schools, but these dialogues have not been, so far, subjected
to systematic and objective evalua tion, and this remains a very
significant issue for building up pillars for upcoming dialogue.
• Despite the unity of purpose and motivation during the period of
armed struggle, which was liberation of the country and expulsion of
the colonizer, and the agreement on the principal means; and that was
the means of armed struggle un til victory and liberation of the
country; however, the dialogue did no t meet the desired objectives at
any of its historical stages. There is a fact that can not be denied in
some of these stages: the pres ence of progress and theoretical
breakthroughs; and it is a point not in favor of dialogue at this stage
following the divergence in goals and multiplicity of means.
• Assuming that the government is one side and the opposition is
another side at this stage with the non-existence of any tangible
experiences in this regard, the gove rnment certainly is not a single
entity as well as the oppositio n. Hence the dialogue among the
components of each camp is not a motivating experience. A note
worth mentioning here is the pres ence of dialogue in the opposition
camp. However, it is not up-to- the historical experience and the
challenges ahead. Meanwhile, we fi nd a great deal of atrophy in the PDF page 6
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experience of dialogue within the government, and all the attempts
had not only a disappointing ends but also tragic in its several phases.
• Dialogue over historical experiences results from the feeling of the
parties the pressure of a problem a nd the need to overcome it; a thing
which has not been achieved yet, a lthough there were varying degrees
between the two blocs on one hand, and the components of each bloc
separately on the other hand.
Prospective of the Eritrean – Eritrean Dialogue
The above mentioned observations ar e general introductions which would
help us in trying to understand the fu ture of the Eritrean-Eritrean dialogue,
particularly in its principal dimens ion – dialogue between the government
and the opposition. Certainly this dialo gue is, so far, hypothetical dialogue;
and this hypothesis stems from the n eed of everyone for dialogue with the
existence of deeply-rooted crisis in the Eritrean political arena. All the
Eritrean political powers realize this fact, but they differ in its causes, at the
same time, these powers shortens the pr oblem in a way that could help them
avoid responsibility, and af terwards justify non- initiating to open a page of
real handling which starts with dial ogue. The Eritrean government assumes
that the problem is an international avidities–Ethiopian and American- at
this stage, and that the opposition is not more than one of the tools used by
these international powers, while the opposition believes that the problem
lies in the regime and its composition as well as defective vision, and that
the problem is resolved with the demise of the regime.
These assumptions are not void of some truth, but they are not the whole
truth. Thus the appropriate approach, in our estimation, is recognizing the
crisis and identifying its factual ca uses. For example th e government must
recognize that there is deep internal crisis which resulted by its policies. This
is because the government is originally one of the revolu tion factions that
did not recognize other and also did not entertain the id ea of seeking any
constitutional legitimacy, especially after the last Eritrean –Ethiopian war
(1998 -2000).
The opposition also must recognize that there ar e international and regional
avidities, and that it must not be instruments for others. These keys,
undoubtedly, hold numerous intertwine d details upon which significant
attitudes and commitments are built.
Negotiating is a complicated process which depends on persuasion on the
one hand and pressure on the other. Pressure can practiced only through PDF page 7
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7
certain factors represented in the availa bility of adequate information to the
interlocutor and possession of hidden cards to bring out in the right time, but
the most important thing in the proces s of dialogue and negotiation is the
capability to present conces sions and alternatives. The success of dialogue
depends on the magnitude of concessions that could be made by the parties;
however, concessions always come as a result of weakness or awareness of
the problem. Hence the parties always seek to improve their negotiating
positions by imposing some facts on the ground and principles in the
conscience.
In this regard; the expected sides of dialogue in Eritrea – the government and
the opposition - have the elements of success of the dialogue, as both sides
have strengths and weakness es, and this is very impo rtant issue because this
forms a kind of balance.
Strengths of the Government:
A. The government enjoys the intern ational recognition, and it has
diplomatic representation and external relations at the world level.
B. The government controls the for ce on the ground, the army and
security in addition to the civil service.
C. The government possesses more po werful and organized media than
the opposition.
D. The government exists on the gr ound of the country while the
effectiveness of the opposition is outside the battlefield.
Weaknesses of the Government
A. Non-existence of constitutional legi timacy to prop up the government
and the absence of law and justice constituents.
B. Deteriorated economic and security situation.
C. Direct regional threat and indirect international threat.
D. Great hatred by all sectors of the people.
E. Non-existence of qualified cadre in all government utilities, including
senior and constitutional positions.
F. Non-existence of strategic planning in addition to centralization of the
state at the disposal of the presiden t, an issue which makes the others
either people of interest or scared, but not convinced.
G. Political, financial and moral corruption that has beaten all sectors of
country. PDF page 8
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Strengths of the Opposition
The most important points of strengt h of the opposition is playing on the
weaknesses of the government and cr iticizing these weaknesses and in
presenting theoretical alternatives without holding political or moral
responsibility for provision of the alte rnatives as long as it is outside the
government. The opposition also could bring up concepts of democracy,
human rights and good governance that have been internationally
acceptable.
Weaknesses of the Opposition
A. Continuing differences among factions of the opposition, which bears
in some of its features the historical differences.
B. Weakness of the opposition on th e ground and being centralized in
abroad.
C. Absence of international relations except only in very limited context.
D. Weakness of the mobilization and organizational mech anisms of the
opposition to deal with the people.
E. Lack of planning in its performanc e and meager information about its
opponent for its presence outside the country.
F. Great shortage leadership and the lack of popular charismatic leaders.
The Eritrean – Eritrean Dialogue, Living Notion but Absent Action
The two would be dialoguing parties ha ve points of strength and weakness
to hold a dialogue; however the supposed dialogue has never taken place yet.
Among the various factors that hindered the occurrence of such a dialogue,
the following factors would be worth mentioning.
A. The decision-making mentality of the country, the EPLF, has been
known over the course of its histor y for an exclusionary approach.
The results of the referendum for independence which demonstrated
an Eritrean consensus was a historical opportunity for national
reconciliation, and so did the Er itrean-Ethiopian war in 1998 along
other opportunities the EPLF downplayed.
B. Weakness of the opposition in all as pects: politics, military, media,
diplomacy, and organization. It has never posed a day a threat to the
government; and hence the oppositi on, according to the government's PDF page 9
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assumptions, has never caused a prac tical pressure which necessitated
neither conducting a dialogue nor offering concessions.
C. The Eritrean-Ethiopian war provided the regime an opportunity for
finding justifications for conti nuation, and for suspending the
constitution. Besides, the repercussi on of the last war with Ethiopia
made the regime to get ride of potential influential figures from within
the EPLF.
D. Lack of strategic visions for th e active regional actors; and hence
following a reactionary approach while dealing w ith either the
Eritrean government or the opposition.
E. Eritrea has never become a priority in international interests. If the
case were the other way round, the international powers would search
for factors of stability of the state through imposing compromises and
offering concessions.
Opportunities for dialogue and its success
There are still opportunities of conducti ng an Eritrean – Eritrean dialogue as
long as the political pr oblem exists; and the possibilities for the success of
such dialogue on the theoretical leve l are also very high. However on the
practical level initiating a dialogue is beyond a fantasy putting aside its
chances of success. Perhaps this is the puzzling point in the Eritrean
problem.
The success of any dialogue relies on intersecting opportunities and
antagonism for either party. These coul d be the expected agenda of either
party-the government and the opposition- on the round table.
Agenda of the opposition
The opposition is expected to projec t, following the procedural term
achieved by initiating a dialogue. This pr ocedural term is recognition of the
government and the presence of a mediator acceptable to both parties: -
A. Releasing of prisoners and lifti ng of grievances through agreed upon
mechanisms.
B. Transferring to a democratic system and conducting of internationally
monitored fair elections.
C. There should be a transitional government (of national unity) and
transitional constitution to arrange for this. PDF page 10
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D. Balanced development programme that embodies an affirmative
approach for the most affected regions.
E. Repatriation of refugees to their areas along with their integration
into the society in coordination with the international community.
Agenda of the government
The government is expected to bring up, in the negotiations, the following
points:
A. Recognition of the significant ro le played by the EPLF in the
liberation of the country and its ad ministration and protection of the
sovereignty of the country as well as resources.
B. A clear-cut stance of the opposition regarding the verdict of border
demarcation as well as concerning the Ethiopian position on this
issue.
C. Maintaining the existing instituti ons and working through them; and
hence opening a new page without signaling judiciary trials or
prosecutions.
D. There might be demands to keep the president as a head of the
transitional government.
A careful reading for the thorough projected agenda could apparently tell the
possibility of striking an agreement. Despite a discrepancy in form that
appears between the articles of the age ndas, however they are not divergent
to a degree they could be described as parallels and impossible to intersect.
For instance, fear from external gree d and regional interventions are shared
obsessions between the opposition a nd the government as well as the
position concerning the border demarc ation decision between Eritrea and
Ethiopia and the necessity to be commi tted it. This makes clear that the
problem lies in n initiating a dial ogue; and hence looki ng for conducting a
dialogue has become an end at this tim e without seeking the assumptions of
its success or not. The procedural s tipulations remain the appropriate
approach; and this approach is not for th e interest of either party but for the
interests of dialogue. These stipulati ons are reciprocal recognition and an
appropriate mediator.
Summary:
The Eritrean-Eritrean dialogues, with Eritrean will, is unexpected due to
factors that have been discussed in details. These factors include PDF page 11
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psychological, historical and political factors in addition to reciprocal
mistrust. It seems apparently clear th at the dialogue could succeed provided
it is held on an appropriate forum de spite the intersection in the projected
agendas. Platforms and mediators s hould usually meet the appropriate
conditions including an ab ility to influence the dialoguing parties and to
have interests in the success of the dialogue. Th erefore, this paper, in
conclusion, proposes that the Sudan, fo r instance, with Arab support (Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, and Qatar) is the suitable platform for conducting the dialogue
between the two sides.
Incidents have drawn the Sudanese - Eritrean relations not only towards
more rapprochements, but also towa rds coming up with common positions
regarding decisive issues; a matter which necessitates finding inclusive
solutions that transcend the territorial border of each country. Thus each of
the two countries is concerned, at this time, about the stability of the other
for their own interest. This is what Er itrea is trying to implement through its
mediations in issues of Eastern Suda n and Darfur. Likewise, the Sudan is
called for to search for the factors of stability in Eritrea; and that would be a
political solution for the problem of Eritrea. Ethiopia also possesses
significant keys for stability of Eritrea and formation of its future because of
the geopolitical weight it enjoys. More over, Sudan could also contribute in
defusing the tensions between Eritrea an d Ethiopia owing to its balanced
relations with both countr ies while maintaining, in a balanced manner, the
interests of the two countries on one si de and the interests of the Eritrean
government and opposition on the ot her. Sudan could also reduce,
depending on the mutual trust between the two countries, the Ethiopian fears
regarding this dialogue.
According to the existing facts, the politi cal stability in Eritrea is in need of
something greater than reconcilia tion between the regime and the
opposition, even if that reconciliati on is the most important element.
Because of the weakness that the opposit ion is suffering; some people might
think that this opposition is not qualified, at this time, to engage in such a
dialogue. However, no matter how weak is the Eritrean opposition in the
government's point of view ; this opposition has just demands and even if it
suffers several internal factors related to its historical and political make up
in addition to external factors; mostly the United States of America's desire
of the continuation of the regime since th ere is no alternative; and so that to
avoid the collapse the stat e like what has happened in Somalia, an issue
which increases fears against the spread of terrorism. Consequently, there is PDF page 12
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a suitable opportunity for Sudan to ma ke use of its relations with these
powers to take a decision to launch more effective and influential step, and
that is a national Eritrean-Eritrean dialogue.
Conclusion
In conclusion we would like to remind the honorable audience that this
paper was prepared for hypothetical pr oject which has not yet appeared, at
the same time, the non-existence of objective reasons for not conducting this
dialogue, despite existence of the collective interest in such a dialogue and
its success. Therefore, seeking othe r causes and factors, which are not
necessarily logical, becomes an issu e which deserves exerting efforts;
perhaps from that angle the non-existent fact can be figured out.